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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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