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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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