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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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