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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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