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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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