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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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