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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was buoyant this week with all sectors up except for the Cape size index. The BDI was up by 5.21 pct closing at 10 ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP CONTRACTS SLIDE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for February 2013 delivery lost 0.76percent WoW but gained 0.16 percent DoD on Friday ...
Saturday, 24 November 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCES 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 31.1 million bcm* (-4.0% YoY) of Overburden in October 2012 totaled while coal production was ...
Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of ...
Thursday, 22 November 12
HANDY: INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA NOW FIXED AT USD 12500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The north Continent is seeing plenty of tonnages but lack of cargoes. TA business are around 11k and fronthaul is around 17k.Tonnages has tig ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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