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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 19 November 12
IHS MCCLOSKEY ASIA PACIFIC COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 2012
With the current global oversupply of thermal coal showing no signs of abating and spot prices falling to a two-year low, concerns are growing that ...
Sunday, 18 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR JANUARY 2013 DELIVERY GAINS 1.29 PERCENT WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for January 2013 delivery gains 1.29 percent WoW and 0.25 percent DoD on Friday, 16 Novembe ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week market sentiments ended positive with all the segments ending higher except for handy size which was almost at same levels ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
RECORD DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SEEKS TO CURB TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
This year will prove to be another record-breaker in terms of scrapping of older vessels across all shipping segments, as the equally feverish pace ...
Friday, 16 November 12
SHIP OWNERS KEEP ON INVESTING IN SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Priced attractively, modern and with prompt delivery dates, second hand vessels are proving to be rather popular among cash-rich ship owners these d ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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