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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 22 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RISE, BUT OUTLOOK SEEN DIM ON THE BACK OF RECORD NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been under hefty pressure since the start of the year, as a result of record newbuilding deliveries and below-par demand for ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
LITTLE IMPACT FROM DISSOLUTION OF BP MIGAS ON INDONESIAN OIL & GAS COMPANIES - FITCH
Fitch Ratings has said that the recent court order to abolish the Indonesian upstream oil and gas regulator, BP Migas, has minimal immediate impact ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY SECURES FIRST COAL OFF TAKE CONTRACT
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX:OEG) has announced that it has signed a coal sales contract with an Indonesian steel manufacturing compan ...
Tuesday, 20 November 12
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT HAS LOADED 13.18 PERCENT LESS COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,691,731 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 19 November 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 19 November 12
GOVT PREPARES TO FACE ANOTHER SUIT ON MINING LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is gearing up to face a complaint on the 2009 Mining Law prepared by the same organization that previously brought down upstream oil ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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