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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 55.88 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 3 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,796,341 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 December 2012, Newca ...
Sunday, 02 December 12
YEAR 2013, YEAR OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND?
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1 2013 delivery gained 2.87 & 0.83 percent MoM and WoW respectively ...
Saturday, 01 December 12
TIGHT SUPPLY, DEMAND PUSH INDO-INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES HIGHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed this week as cape and Panamax indices are closing softer.
The BDI was down 0.37 pct closing at 1,086 ...
Friday, 30 November 12
FUTURE TREND OF SECOND HAND SHIP VALUES PUZZLING SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the major challenges that ship owners are facing today is whether or not to invest in a second hand vessel at any given time. For instance, i ...
Friday, 30 November 12
IS INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON INDIA AND CHINA?
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 35,143,587* tons of coal in October 2012. October exports are 19 ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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