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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 December 12
A NEW PHASE FOR AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES - A FITCH STREET INTERVIEW
This week Matt Jamieson spoke with Andrew Colquhoun in Fitch's Asian sovereign rating team, and Vicky Melbourne, Fitch's commodity analyst based i ...
Friday, 07 December 12
SHIPPING INDUSTRY LOOKING ON YET ANOTHER TOUGH YEAR AS WE APPROACH 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most import ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
PANAMAX : THE POSITIVE VIBES IN THE ATLANTIC REMAINS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market is still depressed with dearth of cargoes and more ships. The trips from Continent to Feast fixed around USD 12k. Trips f ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commod ...
Tuesday, 04 December 12
JATENERGY SIGNS MOU FOR INDONESIAN COAL ASSET
COALspot.com - Jatenergy Limited has announced that its fully-owned Indonesian subsidiary, PT Barata Energy (BE), has signed an exclusive, non-bindi ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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