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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 12 June 12
ITACHA RESOURCES BUYS SARANA MARINE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Itacha Resources, a joint venture between Anthoni Salim and Glenn Yusuf, announced that Itacha ...
Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US ...
Monday, 11 June 12
ASIAN COAL TRADING COMMUNITY EMBRACES API 5 AND API 8
Press Release - The Asian coal trading community is embracing the API 5 and API 8 indexes for its swap contracts.
The API 5 index represents 5,50 ...
Sunday, 10 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall this week and down by 2.99 pct closing at 877 points.
The Cape index also was down by 5.78 pct closing a ...
Friday, 08 June 12
ESSAR ENERGY RECEIVES FINAL APPROVAL FOR INDONESIAN COAL BLOCK
COALspot.com - Essar Energy plc, the India-focused integrated energy company, today announced that it has received final ‘Pinjam Pakai’ ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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