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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 22 June 12
GLOBAL ACTION NEEDED ON ENERGY POVERTY - WORLD COAL
Eradicating energy poverty is possibly the biggest challenge facing the world today. Like climate change it can only be addressed with a concerted g ...
Friday, 22 June 12
COAL: THE BACKBONE OF MODERN ELECTRICITY - ECOAL
Coal has been described as the "forgotten fuel," perhaps because many aren't aware of the huge role it plays in powering the global econo ...
Thursday, 21 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was on the rise once again yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the industry’s benchmark, rising by 18 points, or 1 ...
Wednesday, 20 June 12
BDI MOVING HIGHER, PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX VESSELS STRONGER, CAPESIZE RATES NEAR TO HISTORICAL LOWS OF DECEMBER 2008 - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry market seems to follow the dynamic of the previous week with the Baltic Dry Index showing daily increases since June 8th, but is still stand ...
Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straigh ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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