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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 17 June 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES ARE LIKELY TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI gained some increase after continues fall for several weeks.
The BDI increased by 47 points (up by 5.36 pct) closing at 92 ...
Saturday, 16 June 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT SWAPS ARE UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries seems to be under pressure this week.&nbs ...
Friday, 15 June 12
CAPESIZE - THE LEVELS THAT DID FIX ARE DOWN W-O-W LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another slow-moving market with rates hovering at same level as last week. US Gulf positions fixed USD 25,000 for trips to Cont/Passero and S ...
Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affe ...
Wednesday, 13 June 12
LOW COAL PRICES COULD CHANGE SUPPLY SIDE DYNAMICS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that the weakness seen in thermal coal prices in recent months should reverse once demand from major importers recovers, alth ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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