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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
Friday, 08 June 12
NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON ADARO'S RATING FROM BEP TRANSACTION - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has said that PT Adaro Indonesia's (Adaro, 'BB+'/ Stable) ratings are not immediately affected by its parent PT Adaro Energy Tbk's ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS FOR 10 STRAIGHT SESSION ON OVERSUPPLY PROBLEMS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A resurgence of oversupply, coupled with national holidays in various parts of the world has contributed to yet another fall of the dry bulk market ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
COAL EXPORT TAX NOT RATIONAL: MINISTER - THE JAKARTA POST
Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan has criticized as irrational the idea to restrict coal exports by imposing an export tax, According to The Jakarta post ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
BY 2022 PLN IS EXPECTED TO BURN AROUND 125 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - Indonesia's state owned electricity company's (PLN) coal consumption is expected to reach 125.7 million tons by 2012.
Nur Pamudj ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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