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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
Saturday, 30 June 12
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 2.66 pct (up by 26 points) closing at 1,004 points crossing the 1000 point barrier this week.
The c ...
Friday, 29 June 12
INDONESIAN PRODUCERS ARE PLANNING TO CUT PRODUCTION IF COAL PRICES FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 31.54* million tons of coal in May 2012, compared to 31.86* mill ...
Friday, 29 June 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DOING THEIR MATHS BEFORE PLACING NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With oversupply having plagued the dry bulk shipping fleet since the end of 2011, it’s become ever so evident that placing a newbuilding order ...
Thursday, 28 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER ON CAPESIZE OPTIMISM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up by 0.71% to 988 points. Most ship types were up, with the ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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