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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 07 July 12
EXCESS SUPPLY & WEAK DEMAND KEEP COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps for August and Q4 deliveries slipped slightly this week. SGX’s Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swap ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
BALTIC INDEX UP ON STRONG CAPE, PANAMAX RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week all the segments were firmed up with BDI up by 15.23 pct (up by 153 points) closing at 1,157 points.
The cape index also ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET NOT ABLE TO FIND SOLID GROUND SAY EXPERTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the second half of each, traditionally looking the most active one, especially in terms of newbuildings being delivered, it's highly unlikely ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
GOVT GETS READY FOR $1.8B SUIT - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading Indonesian English new papers reported that, several ministries and the Attorney General’s Office held a ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET MOVES FURTHER UP THE HILL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its growth momentum by the middle of the week, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose by an additional 40 points to 1,103 p ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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