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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 July 12
SHIP PRICES HAVE FALLEN RAPIDLY THIS YEAR, FAVORING INVESTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The price for a 5 year old Capesize dry bulk carrier of 172,000 dwt has fallen to about $33,4mil from $42.9 at the end of June 2011, while at end of ...
Saturday, 14 July 12
FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO BE QUITE VOLATILE - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market seems to be quite volatile with the trend changing almost every week. This week all the segments were down except for Pana ...
Friday, 13 July 12
TRANSCOAL MINERGY HAS RECEIVED PMA STATUS IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com - PT Transcoal Minergy (“TCM”) has received official foreign owned company status from the Capital Investment Coordinating ...
Thursday, 12 July 12
LACK OF CAPESIZE DEMAND DRAGS DRY BULK MARKET LOWER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A lack of demand for the larger Capesize dry bulk carriers had as a result the fall of the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), w ...
Thursday, 12 July 12
RIO TINTO'S SENIOR MANAGEMENT CHANGES
COALspot.com - Rio Tinto is making changes to its senior management team as chief financial officer (CFO) Guy Elliott has decided to retire at the e ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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