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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 17 August 11
BUMI'S H1 UNDERLYING OPERATING PROFIT $62 MILLION
COALspot.com - Bumi PLC , posted underlying first-half operating profit of $62 million and production at PT Bumi Resources and PT Berau increased to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
SHIP OWNERS COULD FACE PAIN ON THE BACK OF GLOOMY ECONOMYS PREDICTIONS - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest market turmoil, coupled with the renewed risk of a global recession could very well signal more troubled times for ship owners of all shi ...
Tuesday, 16 August 11
CHALLENGER ENTERED INTO CSPA WITH PELANGI KERTANEGARA TO ACQUIRE 100% STAKE
COALspot.com - Challenger Deep Resources Corp., through its wholly owned subsidiary, P.T. Bestindo Energy, has exercised its option to purchase an a ...
Monday, 15 August 11
ADARO ENERGYS NET INCOME MORE THAN DOUBLES IN FIRST HALF 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian’s second largest coal producer, Adaro Energy, booked net profit US$ 268 million in the first half 2011, rose two-fol ...
Monday, 15 August 11
INDIAS MALABAR CEMENTS SEEK TO IMPORT 40,000 TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - Malabar Cements Ltd., India's Keralaa government owned cement factory is seeking to import 40K metric tons of non-coking coal throug ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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