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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 19 August 11
INDIA IMPORTS LESS INDONESIAN COAL THAN CHINA IN JULY
COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 31.30 Million tons of coal in July 2011, up by 10.69 percent compared to June's export of about 28.27 ...
Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by Jan ...
Thursday, 18 August 11
MARUBENI ACQUIRED 42.86% OF YTL JAWA POWER
COALspot.com - Marubeni Corporation (Marubeni) has completed the acquisition of 42.86 percent of the shares of YTL Jawa Power Holdings BV from YTL P ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
CME LAUNCHES ARGUS COKING COAL SWAP FUTURES
COALspot.com - Argus media reported that, leading exchange CME Group will list an Australian coking coal swap futures contract for trading on the Ny ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
TAVESCO KILLARA ENERGY TO ACQUIRE COAL CONCESSIONS IN EAST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Killara Resources Limited, an Australian listed company has formed PT Tavesco Killara Energy (TKE), a joint company with PT Tavesco I ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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