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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging ...
Sunday, 21 August 11
SUPRAMAX AVAILABILITY WAS TIGHT DUE TO UPCOMING RAMADAN HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com - The financial markets have been in turmoil with all major stock exchanges down and uncertainty prevails. However the shipping market ...
Sunday, 21 August 11
TUAH TURANGGA ACQUIRES DUTA NURCAHYA
Coal miner PT Tuah Turangga Agung, a wholly owned subsidiary of PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) via PT Pamapersada Nusantara), has agreed to acquire 6 ...
Friday, 19 August 11
INDIAS CICTL HAS ACHIEVED ONE MILLION TONS OF DISCHARGE
COALspot.com - Chettinad International Coal Terminal (CICTL) in Ennore port, a state of the art mechanized coal terminal, which was inaugurated on 28t ...
Friday, 19 August 11
AUSTRALIAS' ATH TO ACQUIRE 60% OF APUAH COAL MINE IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Australian listed company, Atech Holdings Limited (ATH) has entered into a conditional binding term sheet to acquire 60 percent stake ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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