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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 25 August 11
OPG EXPECTS COAL PRICES TO REMAIN FIRM IN THE SHORT TERM
COALspot.com - Revenue of OPG, the developer and operator of Group Captive power plants in India up 188% to £33.15m and Income from continuing ...
Thursday, 25 August 11
PAITON POWER LOOKING FOR 3.96 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - PT Pembangkit Jawa Bali (PJB) is looking for 3.96 million tons coal with calorific value 4,800 kcal/kg on as received basis. Accordin ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
ICMA CALLS GOVERNMENT TO REVIEW EXPORT BAN REGULATION
COALspot.com - Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) Bob Kamandanu asks the government to review the regulation that being draft ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
ADARO ENERGY ACQUIRES 75% STAKE OF PT MUSTIKA INDAH PERMAI FOR US$ 222.5 MILLION
COALspot.com - PT Alam Tri Abadi, a wholly owned subsidiary of PT Adaro Energy Tbk, signed a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75% stake of PT M ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
COAL DEMAND IS REMAINED STRONG IN SPITE OF CURRENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY - BUMI
COALspot.com - Indonesia's largest coal producer, PT Bumi Resources, Tbk (BUMI)'s sales revenue has increased to US$1.79 billion (compared with US ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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