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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 03 September 11
TNPL TO BUY 240K MT OF NON-COKING COAL
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited (TNPL), is seeking to procure 240,000 MT +/- 5 percent of non-coking imported coal with ...
Friday, 02 September 11
CAPESIZE DEMAND LIFTS DRY BULK MARKET ONCE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what proves to be the best week of the year for Capesize owners, strong demand has helped propel the dry bulk market to new highs yesterday. The ...
Thursday, 01 September 11
EWP TO BUY 195KT OF VIETNAM COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) has issued an International open bidding for 490kt of sub bituminous coal, according to a bid invitation ...
Thursday, 01 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET TAKES GREAT LEAP FORWARD - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU
In what turned out to be a rather hopeful ending of the month, the last day of August saw the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry ...
Tuesday, 30 August 11
FAUJI CEMENT CONSUMED MORE THAN 1 MILLION TONS OF LOCAL COAL
Cooper Minerals Inc.based in Vancouver, BC, Canada, is a junior exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of miner ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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