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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 06 September 11
SEMEN GRESIK TO ACQUIRE COAL MINE FOR RP. 1 TRILLION
COALspot.com - PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) is planning to acquire a low calorific value coal concession (IUP). According to Semen Gresik, the coal mi ...
Tuesday, 06 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY POWERS THROUGH TO NEW WEEK, BUT A CORRECTION COULD BE OVERDUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s freights rates kept leaping forwards during the beginning of the week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic D ...
Monday, 05 September 11
TNPL POSTPONES BID OPENING UNTIL 12 SEPTEMBER 2011
COALspot.com - TNPL has postponed submission of the offer until 12 September 2011 on request from the supplier, an Indian trader said.
Due to Ram ...
Monday, 05 September 11
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE - ANALYSIS
Analyst : Sunil K Kumbhat
COALspot.com - As a part of the Government’s efforts to stop transfer pricing abuses which have resulted in the los ...
Saturday, 03 September 11
FEW SHIPS REPORTED FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend during last week with BDI up by about 13 pct closing at 1,740 points and cape index up ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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