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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 28 August 11
FREIGHT MARKET COULD BE FIRM NEXT MONTH - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend first half of the week . However, towards the end of the week lost momentum and the BDI ...
Saturday, 27 August 11
JAPANESE BULK CARRIER SETS RECORD ON NORTHERN SEA ROUTE - BARENTS OBSERVER
The Northern Sea Route will see its third record in less than a month when the largest ever bulk carrier to take the route leaves Murmansk next week ...
Saturday, 27 August 11
RBCT-INDIA ROUNDS FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12K - FEARNBULK
Handy
Stable but very positional markets across all segments in the Atlantic: the gap between owners and charterers rate ideas is building up as o ...
Friday, 26 August 11
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG ACQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL 40% SHARES IN BARA PRIMA AGUNG
COALspot.com - PT Tuah Turangga Agung, a subsidiary of PT United Tractors Tbk, has signed an acquisition agreement to acquire 40% of PT Bara Prima A ...
Friday, 26 August 11
INTRACO EYES US$200 MIO COAL TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Heavy equipment distributor PT Intraco Penta Tbk, that was founded by Halex Halim, is scouting a coal acquisition with the valuation above US$200 mi ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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