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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 09 September 11
SUPRA BARA SECURES $20 MILLION LOAN - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, Coal miner PT Supra Bara Energi says it has secured a US$20 million loan facility from BNP Paribas to buy heavy equi ...
Friday, 09 September 11
CAPESIZE CAN SECURE USD 17-18K SHORT PERIOD - FEARNBULK
Handy
The US Gulf has remained relatively steady, slightly more activity in the South Atlantic with owners aiming for low to mid USD 20k´s f ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
UKRAINES COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 8% - IFANDP
Industrial fuels & power reported that, Ukraine will increase its coal output by about 8% this year compared to last year, said the country&rsqu ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY COMES TO AN END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was widely expected by analysts and shipbrokers alike, the latest rally of the dry bulk market came to a halt yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Inde ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
TRADA MARITIME BUYS GUNUNG BARA UTAMA
Insider Stories reported that, PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) has purchased convertible bonds issued by PT Awesome Coal from Zakia Limited. The memora ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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