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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 13 September 11
CAPITAL COSTS OF INDIAN COAL MINING PROJECT - AN ANALYST VIEW
By Mr Dipesh Dipu, Director - Consulting (Mining), Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Private Limited
The coal mining sector that has been opened par ...
Tuesday, 13 September 11
INDONESIAS COAL SECTOR EYES 2012 BOOM - JG
The Jakarta Globe, Indonesian English language News paper reported that, Coal production is set to surge next year as coal miners bolster their busi ...
Tuesday, 13 September 11
DRY BULK RALLY MAINTAINS MOMENTUM AT START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum at the start of the week, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 2.07% ...
Monday, 12 September 11
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS ALLOCATED MORE COAL FOR 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian government has increased the domestic market obligation allocation to 82.07 million tons of coal for 2012, which is 4 perc ...
Saturday, 10 September 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend during last week with BDI crossing 1,800 points and closing at 1,838 points up by 5.63 ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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