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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 14 August 11
SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES SHARPLY UP - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI ended positive with gains in Cape and Panamax index. The BDI was up by 1.50 pct and the cape and panamax index was up by almo ...
Saturday, 13 August 11
GMR HAS ENTERED INTO CSPA WITH GEMS TO ACQUIRE 30% STAKE
COALspot.com - GMR Infrastructure Investments (Singapore) Pte Ltd, a subsidiary of GMR Infrastructure, has signed conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 12 August 11
COAL MINERS WILL ALLOW TO CONSTRUCT MINE MOUTH POWER PLANT
COALspot.com - The government is set to draft a regulation to enable construction of steam-fired power plants (PLTU) by coal mining companies for th ...
Friday, 12 August 11
CAPESIZE DEMAND HELPS LIFTING OF DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has recovered a small fraction of its lost ground this week, with higher returns as a result of increased capesize demand. This ...
Thursday, 11 August 11
INDO TAMBANGRAYA 1H NET PROFIT SOARS 53.09%
Coal miner PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) today reported a 53.09% jump in net profit for the first 6 months of this year on the back of higher ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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