We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 02 August 11
INDONESIA BECOMES SECOND LARGEST COKING COAL EXPORTER
COALspot.com - Indonesia, the largest thermal coal exporter in the world now becomes second biggest coking coal exporter to Japan. Indonesian’ ...
Tuesday, 02 August 11
5TH ASIA PACIFIC COAL TRADING & INVESTMENT OUTLOOK TO PRESENT LATEST TRENDS
Press Release - Global commodities prices have been staying high since the beginning of 2011, resulting in the “TENSION” in various coun ...
Tuesday, 02 August 11
REALM RESOURCES TO ACQUIRE A 75% INTEREST IN THE KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com - Scoping study at the Katingan Ria Coal Project, Central Kalimantan demonstrates positive technical and financial potential for the pr ...
Tuesday, 02 August 11
COAL INDIA TO INVEST IN GOLDEN ENERGY MINES
COALspot.com - Golden Energy Mines, part of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk’s, is still negotiating with several strategic investors to o ...
Sunday, 31 July 11
CAPES ARE TRADING BELOW $ 9500 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI further softened by 4.46 pct and closed at 1264 points which touched below 1300 points after long time. The Cape and Panamax ...
|
|
|
Showing 5161 to 5165 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
