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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 05 August 11
THE WORLDS LARGEST COAL MINER TO INVEST IN INDO MINES
COALspot.com - Golden Energy Mines (GEMS) might go for initial public offering (IPO) by the end of September 2011. The company is planning to off lo ...
Friday, 05 August 11
DRY BULK MARKET FINALLY TAKES A BREATHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market at last caught a break mid-week after a constant fall which saw the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) falli ...
Thursday, 04 August 11
THE HBA CONTINUES TO FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has set the August 2011 coal reference price at US$ 117.21 per ton slightly low ...
Wednesday, 03 August 11
DEWA RETURNS TO US$2.65 MIO NET PROFIT - INSIDER STORIES
Coal mining contractor PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA), that most of its revenue is contributed by Kaltim Prima Coal and Arutmin Indonesia, returned to ne ...
Wednesday, 03 August 11
DRY BULK MARKET SINKS TO THREE-MONTH LOWS, BUT CAPESIZES COULD TURN THINGS AROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on falling this week, on the back of slow cargo demand amid the summer season. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the i ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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