We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 09 August 11
DRY BULK MARKET UNABLE TO FIND UPWARD MOMENTUM, SLUMPS AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
They same that what goes up must come down and nobody seems to have found a better application of this expression, than the beleguered dry bulk mark ...
Monday, 08 August 11
OIL PRICES ARE SOFTENING, WILL IT INFLUENCE COAL PRICES?
COALspot.com - The current global economic condition is in volatility after a little chance of optimism for economic recovery.
Oil price at ...
Monday, 08 August 11
A SUPRAMAX VESSEL WAS REPORTED FIXED AT $ 12K - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was slightly up by about 4 points closed at 1268 points which was supported by cape index which was up 3.14 pct and closed at ...
Saturday, 06 August 11
NTPC IS CONSIDERING TO ENTER INTO 25 YEARS COAL PURCHASE AGREEMENT
Indian, State-run power producer NTPC's present annual consumption is 164 million tonnes, and company is considering long-term agreements abroad to ...
Friday, 05 August 11
RIO TINTO SIGNS MOU WITH JINDAL STEEL AND POWER ON ADVANCING HISMELT TECHNOLOGY
Press Release - Rio Tinto has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL) to take the next step in g ...
|
|
|
Showing 5151 to 5155 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
|
| |
| |
|
