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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 14 August 11
SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES SHARPLY UP - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI ended positive with gains in Cape and Panamax index. The BDI was up by 1.50 pct and the cape and panamax index was up by almo ...
Saturday, 13 August 11
GMR HAS ENTERED INTO CSPA WITH GEMS TO ACQUIRE 30% STAKE
COALspot.com - GMR Infrastructure Investments (Singapore) Pte Ltd, a subsidiary of GMR Infrastructure, has signed conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 12 August 11
COAL MINERS WILL ALLOW TO CONSTRUCT MINE MOUTH POWER PLANT
COALspot.com - The government is set to draft a regulation to enable construction of steam-fired power plants (PLTU) by coal mining companies for th ...
Friday, 12 August 11
CAPESIZE DEMAND HELPS LIFTING OF DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has recovered a small fraction of its lost ground this week, with higher returns as a result of increased capesize demand. This ...
Thursday, 11 August 11
INDO TAMBANGRAYA 1H NET PROFIT SOARS 53.09%
Coal miner PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) today reported a 53.09% jump in net profit for the first 6 months of this year on the back of higher ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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