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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 19 August 11
INDIA IMPORTS LESS INDONESIAN COAL THAN CHINA IN JULY
COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 31.30 Million tons of coal in July 2011, up by 10.69 percent compared to June's export of about 28.27 ...
Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by Jan ...
Thursday, 18 August 11
MARUBENI ACQUIRED 42.86% OF YTL JAWA POWER
COALspot.com - Marubeni Corporation (Marubeni) has completed the acquisition of 42.86 percent of the shares of YTL Jawa Power Holdings BV from YTL P ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
CME LAUNCHES ARGUS COKING COAL SWAP FUTURES
COALspot.com - Argus media reported that, leading exchange CME Group will list an Australian coking coal swap futures contract for trading on the Ny ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
TAVESCO KILLARA ENERGY TO ACQUIRE COAL CONCESSIONS IN EAST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Killara Resources Limited, an Australian listed company has formed PT Tavesco Killara Energy (TKE), a joint company with PT Tavesco I ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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