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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 23 August 11
COAL DEMAND IS REMAINED STRONG IN SPITE OF CURRENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY - BUMI
COALspot.com - Indonesia's largest coal producer, PT Bumi Resources, Tbk (BUMI)'s sales revenue has increased to US$1.79 billion (compared with US ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
PENRHYN COAL USING EVERGREEN ENERGYS COAL UPGRADING PROCESS
Evergreen Energy Inc has announced the successful testing results of the initial batches of Penrhyn coal using Evergreen Energy’s coal upgradi ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
A SHARP INCREASE IN THE BDI - BRS
A sharp increase in the BDI this week, driven by the rise in Capesize rates. Overall the BDI was up 13.5% to 1,462 points on the back of a 20% surge ...
Monday, 22 August 11
INDONESIA TO BAN BELOW 5700 KCAL/KG COAL FOR EXPORT
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia is in the process of drafting a regulation which is requiring mine owners ...
Monday, 22 August 11
JATENERGY AGREED TO FORM JV WITH AN INDONESIAN COAL MINING COMPANY
COALspot.com - Australian’s listed company, Jatenergy Limited has entered conditional agreement to form joint venture with Indonesia’s c ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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