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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 30 August 11
FAUJI CEMENT CONSUMED MORE THAN 1 MILLION TONS OF LOCAL COAL
Cooper Minerals Inc.based in Vancouver, BC, Canada, is a junior exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of miner ...
Sunday, 28 August 11
FREIGHT MARKET COULD BE FIRM NEXT MONTH - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend first half of the week . However, towards the end of the week lost momentum and the BDI ...
Saturday, 27 August 11
JAPANESE BULK CARRIER SETS RECORD ON NORTHERN SEA ROUTE - BARENTS OBSERVER
The Northern Sea Route will see its third record in less than a month when the largest ever bulk carrier to take the route leaves Murmansk next week ...
Saturday, 27 August 11
RBCT-INDIA ROUNDS FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12K - FEARNBULK
Handy
Stable but very positional markets across all segments in the Atlantic: the gap between owners and charterers rate ideas is building up as o ...
Friday, 26 August 11
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG ACQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL 40% SHARES IN BARA PRIMA AGUNG
COALspot.com - PT Tuah Turangga Agung, a subsidiary of PT United Tractors Tbk, has signed an acquisition agreement to acquire 40% of PT Bara Prima A ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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