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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohm ...
Tuesday, 06 September 11
SEMEN GRESIK TO ACQUIRE COAL MINE FOR RP. 1 TRILLION
COALspot.com - PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) is planning to acquire a low calorific value coal concession (IUP). According to Semen Gresik, the coal mi ...
Tuesday, 06 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY POWERS THROUGH TO NEW WEEK, BUT A CORRECTION COULD BE OVERDUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s freights rates kept leaping forwards during the beginning of the week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic D ...
Monday, 05 September 11
TNPL POSTPONES BID OPENING UNTIL 12 SEPTEMBER 2011
COALspot.com - TNPL has postponed submission of the offer until 12 September 2011 on request from the supplier, an Indian trader said.
Due to Ram ...
Monday, 05 September 11
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE - ANALYSIS
Analyst : Sunil K Kumbhat
COALspot.com - As a part of the Government’s efforts to stop transfer pricing abuses which have resulted in the los ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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