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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 17 August 11
BUMI'S H1 UNDERLYING OPERATING PROFIT $62 MILLION
COALspot.com - Bumi PLC , posted underlying first-half operating profit of $62 million and production at PT Bumi Resources and PT Berau increased to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
SHIP OWNERS COULD FACE PAIN ON THE BACK OF GLOOMY ECONOMYS PREDICTIONS - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest market turmoil, coupled with the renewed risk of a global recession could very well signal more troubled times for ship owners of all shi ...
Tuesday, 16 August 11
CHALLENGER ENTERED INTO CSPA WITH PELANGI KERTANEGARA TO ACQUIRE 100% STAKE
COALspot.com - Challenger Deep Resources Corp., through its wholly owned subsidiary, P.T. Bestindo Energy, has exercised its option to purchase an a ...
Monday, 15 August 11
ADARO ENERGYS NET INCOME MORE THAN DOUBLES IN FIRST HALF 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian’s second largest coal producer, Adaro Energy, booked net profit US$ 268 million in the first half 2011, rose two-fol ...
Monday, 15 August 11
INDIAS MALABAR CEMENTS SEEK TO IMPORT 40,000 TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - Malabar Cements Ltd., India's Keralaa government owned cement factory is seeking to import 40K metric tons of non-coking coal throug ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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