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Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 26 July 11
UT'S SALES COULD REACH TO 8000 UNITS BY THE END OF 2011
COALspot.com - Sales of Komatsu heavy equipment in the domestic market in the first half of 2011 rose 59 percent to 4333 units compared to the same ...
Monday, 25 July 11
INDONESIA STATE ELECTRICITY COMPANY HAS BURNED 19 MMT OF COAL FOR FIRST HALF OF 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesia's State Electricity Company and other IPPs have burned 19 million tons of coal for first half of this year said,Pamudji Nu ...
Monday, 25 July 11
AKR CORPORINDO TO PRODUCE 0.3 MMT OF COAL BY DECEMBER
COALspot.com - PT AKR Corporindo (AKRA) began producing coal from its mine in Muara Teweh, Central Kalimantan. The company is targeting to pro ...
Sunday, 24 July 11
AN INDIAN PORT SETS A WORLD RECORD FOR CONVENTIONAL COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port has set a World record for discharging 106,171 tons of steam coal in just 24 hrs using the conventional unloading sy ...
Saturday, 23 July 11
FAR EAST /SE ASIA ROUTE GAINED US$ 3000 HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI further softened to by 2.22 pct and closed at 1323 points. The Cape and Panamax index also softened and closed at 1841 points ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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