We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong, slowdowns caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weaker than expected activity in the US and shocks to oil supply weighed on the global expansion in the second quarter of the year, the IMF said recently.
The most influential negative surprise was the upsetting effects of the earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy, with supply chain disruptions weighing heavily on industrial production, and consumer sentiment and spending in the world’s 3rd largest economy and beyond.
Meanwhile, GDP growth in the Eurozone, driven by Germany and France, has been better than the IMF expected, but concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in some European countries and the US have triggered renewed heavy financial volatility.
This ongoing financial turmoil has created a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until advanced economies are creating enough jobs again, according to the OECD.
The organisation also points out that there is some concern that if downside risks reinforce each other, their cumulative impact could weaken the recovery significantly, possibly triggering stagflation in some advanced economies. Despite the negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q1 2011. But the mild not very comforting. What should calm this turbulence and bridge the gap to a more steady global economy? Public stimuli from governments across the globe, which should have held up economic growth until private consumption had run out. This has happened prior to a re-emergence of a self-sustained economic environment where consumers once again strongly push demand and growth forward. The markets cry out for decisive action, but politicians hesitate and refrain from dealing with this challenge as they are about to run out of tools and fear a new era of inflation. However, doing nothing only makes things worse. Who are we to rely on?
By mid-June, IMF adjusted 2011 World GDP growth downwards and inflation upwards in the direction of stagflation. Having said that, there are still some unlikely ways to go before the recovery turns that sour.
Commodity prices, mainly food and oil, have been on the rise most of the year generating inflationary pressure in mainly emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, the problem in some advanced economies is the opposite – that is deflation and fears of a deflationary spiral where lower prices lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and lower demand – which in turn leads to even lower prices.
US:Poor second quarter GDP growth in the US unfortunately proved that the so-called “soft patch” is not disappearing easily as its expected temporary status is getting closer to permanent. The growth number came in at 1.3% as compared to Q1 growth of 0.4%. US manufacturing ISM disclosed this development with the steep drop in May and soft comeback in June. ISM for July came in at 50.9 signalling that Q3 could be tough too.
On the (temporarily) positive side – the US debtlimit has been elevated by a last-minute compromise.
A US default would have put more obstacles in the way for US and global recovery than we are already challenged by today. The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations meant, amongst other things, that the Dol high.
Since the turn of the year the EUR/USD cross exchange rate has gone from 1.34 to peak at 1.48 at the end of April. Since then, the cross rate has hovered around its current level at 1.44. (Follow the EUR/USD cross exchange rate via your MyBIMCO profile)
Being a political much more than an economic crisis, the problems created by this domestic political battle have been far-reaching, and developed an unnecessary uncertainty about the US’ ability to pay its dues as well as its future direction for economic development.
Asia: China’s official manufacturing PMI fell in July for four months in a row to a 29-month low of 50.7, down 0.2 from June. Also the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, focusing more on smaller private companies, dropped in July. Actually it dropped below the 50 point threshold, signalling that the economy is no longer expanding. Sustained domestic fiscal tightening and weak foreign demand are the reasons behind this new low-point. A closer reading of the underlying components such as new orders in the official PMI suggests that a “soft landing” is more likely than a “hard landing”.
This may, in turn, translate into a bottoming out at current level of the manufacturing PMI and thus also the underlying industrial production. GDP growth to remain strong at current manufacturing levels, with second quarter GDP growth at 9.5%
As inflation is still high on the agenda in China, the central bank is unlikely to change its course due to developments in 2011. Monetary policy has been contractive to handle growth and inflation and another round of austerity measures cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year, despite the recent slowdown on key export markets as well as domestically.
Despite the upward adjustment of GDP growth for 2011 by the IMF, Europe is continuously haunted by the unsustainable economic situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Following the passing of essential getback- on-track bills by the Greek Parliament, the financial markets started to breathe almost normally for a while as focus shipped toward the other side of the pond by the debt-ceiling issue in the US. But shortly after that was settled, the financial markets reacted strongly again to the overall uncertain financial situation on both sides of the Atlantic.
Outlook: Looking ahead in China, domestic demand is set to continue to be boosted by the local governments’ strong efforts to build public housing and China’s export growth should be supported by rising demand from the emerging economies. Rising demand from advanced economies is likely to remain subdued in coming months.
Japan is clawing its way back towards normality but the road remains bumpy and challenging. Both in terms of normal living and in terms of economic recovery the challenges are clear and present. This is hurtful in Japan and beyond.
As a US default on payments is no longer a short term threat to the US, the US Dollar could gain some strength against the Euro. In the medium term, the threat to the US economy – and subsequently the global economy – is whether the planned budget savings are severe enough to avoid another credit downgrading and the subsequent political uncertainty. Moreover, employment growth and GDP growth is set stay too weak to create a powerful and sustainable economy in the coming months.
Following the 2 million barrels per day for one month release from IEA oil reserves, oil prices have moved sideways. The move was made to rebalance supply with demand in respond to the disruptions in the availability of oil due to the shortfall of Libyan output and to put a damper on oil price inflation as it drags down pace of the much needed global recovery. The move to release IEA oil stocks has only happened twice before. 1) In the build up to the Gulf War in 1991 and 2) after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines, and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.
The absence of major OPEC increases of oil supply to the market prompted the move by IEA, due to a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed damaging and sustained surge in oil prices in Q3 and Q4.
Source : Peter Sand Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 23 July 11
PANAMAX MARKET FACED A LIMITED ACTIVITY IN ALL BASINS
Handy
Atlantic softening across all segments with little fresh enquiry ex Bsea/Cont/USG and ECSA. Trips to Far east remain healthy. More cargoes ex ...
Friday, 22 July 11
MARUBENI ACQUIRING 42.86% SHARE OF YTL JAWA POWER HOLDINGS
COALspot.com - Japan’s Marubeni Corporation acquisition 42.86% stake in YTL Jawa Power Holdings BV, which owns a 35% equity interest in Indone ...
Thursday, 21 July 11
INDIA IMPORTS 36.033 MILLION TONS OF INDONESIAN COAL TILL JUNE
COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 28.27 Million tons of coal in June 2011, a 2.3 percent lesser than May export of about 28.962 million tons, I ...
Thursday, 21 July 11
COAL PRICES ARE AT US$ 120 A TONNE
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal production in 2011 is expected to reach 360 million tons or 5.8 percent higher than government's forecasts. The incr ...
Thursday, 21 July 11
DRY BULK RATES EDGE FURTHER DOWN ON WEAK MARKET SENTIMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market fell once again on Wednesday marking the ninth straight day of losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI ...
|
|
|
Showing 5176 to 5180 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
|
| |
| |
|
