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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 20 January 11
DRY BULK MARKETS FALL SEES NO END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Pundits indicating that the dry bulk market’s sentiment remains weak were justified, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ( ...
Wednesday, 19 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET HAS BOTTOMED OUT, AS WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA DIALS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has finally halted its plunge, after a devastating week of yet more losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ...
Tuesday, 18 January 11
MINISTRY SEEKS COAL FROM INDONESIA - SUNDAY OBSERVER
Sunday Observer reported that, Ministry of Power and Energy is to explore the possibilities of importing quality coal from Indonesia.
Minister Pa ...
Tuesday, 18 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET HAS BOTTOMED OUT, AS WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA DIALS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has finally halted its plunge, after a devastating week of yet more losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ...
Sunday, 16 January 11
STANCHART GLOBAL RESEARCH SEES COAL PRICE RISING ON SUPPLY DISRUPTION - BURSA MALAYSIA MARKET NEWS
Bursa Malaysia Market News reported that, Standard Chartered Global Research has upgraded its 2011 forecasts for global thermal coal prices based on ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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