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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 26 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TAKES YET ANOTHER NOSEDIVE, CAPESIZES LOOK RATHER UNATTRACTIVE AT THE MOMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The downturn of the dry bulk market sees no boundariers, disproving even those who thought that at least for the capesize market, the worst had pass ...
Tuesday, 25 January 11
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO TUMBLE LAST WEEK - BRS
With weather-related problems affecting the short-term outlook, and new building deliveries the longer-term picture, dry bulk rates continued to tum ...
Tuesday, 25 January 11
R-POWER TO INVEST $5BN IN INDONESIA - THE TIMES OF INDIA
The Times of India reported that, In what is being seen as one of the largest foreign investments in Indonesia, Reliance Power will infuse $5 billio ...
Monday, 24 January 11
GOVT PROMISES COAL FOR PLN DESPITE PRICE SPIKES - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the government says state electricity company PT PLN will receive enough coal to fire its power plants, despite pric ...
Monday, 24 January 11
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNTURN SEES NO RELIEF - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept falling for yet another week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) losing an additional 4.79 ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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