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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 23 January 11
THE AVERAGE CHARTER RATE FOR CAPE SIZE VESSELS WAS AT $ 8,859 PD ALMOST CLOSE TO 2008 LOWS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and saw a drop of about 5 pct this week closing at 1,370 points. “ In May 2010 the BDI touched ...
Saturday, 22 January 11
POSSIBLE COAL EXPORT RESTRICTIONS ON INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO AFFECT CHURCHILL MINING - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reported that, Churchill Mining moved to reassure investors after a fall in its share price, stating that from talks with the au ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
INDONESIA MAY BAN LOW-QUALITY COAL EXPORTS FROM 2014 - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, The Indonesian government plans to ban exports of coal with an energy value of less than 5,600 kilocalories a kilogram star ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
SUPRAS ARE DOING USD 7- 8K FOR INDONESIA-INDIA - FEARNBULK
Handy
Negative sentiment for forward positions in the Atlantic market due to lack of cargo availability and too many ballasters from the East. Con ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
ITMG TARGETS TO PRODUCE 25 MILLION TONS OF COAL THIS YEAR - BISNIS INDONESIA
Bisnis Indonesia reported that, Coal producer PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) targets to produce 25 million tons of coal this year, a 13. ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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