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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry ...
Wednesday, 12 January 11
BULKER DELIVERIES WEIGHING IN ON FREIGHT RATES KEEPING SENTIMENT ON A NEGATIVE MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A flurry of new buildings still hitting the water has caught up for good with the freight market, with capesizes unable to weather the storm. With r ...
Tuesday, 11 January 11
SUPRAMAX TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA US$ 8,000 PER DAY
Despite continued growth in the bulk trades, the delivery of new vessels is beginning to take its toll. The BDI continued its decline, finishing las ...
Tuesday, 11 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s benchmark index, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) lost further ground in the beginning of the week, following the trend of the ...
Monday, 10 January 11
MINING INVESTMENT TARGET TOO LOW - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive reported that, the Indonesian Mining Association’s executive director, Priyo Pribadi, believes the government’s invest ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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