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Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as freight rates haven't had that necessary push to jumpstart. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, "this has been reflected in the continuous drop in price for the commodity which was on an almost free-fall course from its latest price peak of $158.9 per dry ton reached on the 20th of February. The significantly slower economic momentum of China has slashed demand for this development-linked commodity, dragging both the price as well as the freight cost to multi-month lows. This is set to continue for most of the year, with destocking still a central strategy in China", the report said.
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Research Analyst with Intermodal, "the industry view tends to be that for the long-run, even these bottom-of-the-cycle prices are much higher than what most analysts believe should be the prevailing level. This leads to an expectation of surplus production which eventually could lead to problems in ship-ping, as sources such as South Africa increase their stake in China’s iron ore imports, slashing in turn tonne-mile demand for Capes.
The question that is of more vital importance and an ongoing topic of conversation this year amongst shipping circles is; When can we expect an improvement in market fundamentals?
The answer is looking somewhat more worrying for Capes. It will take a lot more than just cheap commodity prices to get things going again. The Chinese slowdown does not seem to be a temporary hiccup and as such people should be taking it more serious", he noted.
With China accounting last year for 47% of global steel production, there is no debate as to who drives the demand for Capes. "Being heavily dependent on Chinese heavy industry production and investment in infrastructure any further slowdown in economic growth has an imminent impact on freight rates for this sector. Without this driving demand it is hard for this segment to see the sharp rise in freight rates and secondhand prices that many had hoped we would reach within this year. Nevertheless it’s not all black. Baosteel sees a 1-2 pct increase in Chinese steel production this year. The year-to-date increase in output of 7% shows a promise for improved markets in the final quarter, while at the same time it would take a substantial slow-down in output in the second-half for there to be a year-on-year drop in Chinese steel output", Lazaridis said.
With all the above in mind a few questions arise, like for instance, where is the basis for all this business being reported in the Capesize market? Is there a sense that previous bullish sentiment for this size group is leading new investment without there being a real demand for further fleet growth? Could this lead to further dragging out of sub-performing markets?
According to Lazaridis' viewpoint, "over the past couple of months we have seen the majority of trading sessions being reported at average freight figures bellow what is expected for most owners to cover OPEX. Even on some of the more positive trading days, TCE increases are temporary and usually attributed to momentary decreases in bunker costs as well as slow steaming throughout the fleet which helps increase what little extra earnings owners can squeeze out of the current market rates. The counter argument to this can be found in part in the wisdom of old. Through most shipping cycles owners have usually taken a long-term position hoping to make high gains through the cycle rather than only looking to act during periods where the market is on the rise. If they waited for the later we would not have any ship owners left. This may explain activity in the secondhand market however things are very different when it comes to newbuildings. Capesize newbuilding designs have not had the same overhaul in performance that we have seen in other size segments. So why are owner’s risking of drowning the market with further ordering when there are plenty of well-priced secondhand units available. It seems to be yet again the case of easier financing, respectively lower prices, easi-er payment terms and forward delivery that have the upside of even gaining in value before you have made full payment. As promising as all these sound to a potential buyer, a word of caution to the brave, “as you sow, so shall you reap”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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