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Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as freight rates haven't had that necessary push to jumpstart. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, "this has been reflected in the continuous drop in price for the commodity which was on an almost free-fall course from its latest price peak of $158.9 per dry ton reached on the 20th of February. The significantly slower economic momentum of China has slashed demand for this development-linked commodity, dragging both the price as well as the freight cost to multi-month lows. This is set to continue for most of the year, with destocking still a central strategy in China", the report said.
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Research Analyst with Intermodal, "the industry view tends to be that for the long-run, even these bottom-of-the-cycle prices are much higher than what most analysts believe should be the prevailing level. This leads to an expectation of surplus production which eventually could lead to problems in ship-ping, as sources such as South Africa increase their stake in China’s iron ore imports, slashing in turn tonne-mile demand for Capes.
The question that is of more vital importance and an ongoing topic of conversation this year amongst shipping circles is; When can we expect an improvement in market fundamentals?
The answer is looking somewhat more worrying for Capes. It will take a lot more than just cheap commodity prices to get things going again. The Chinese slowdown does not seem to be a temporary hiccup and as such people should be taking it more serious", he noted.
With China accounting last year for 47% of global steel production, there is no debate as to who drives the demand for Capes. "Being heavily dependent on Chinese heavy industry production and investment in infrastructure any further slowdown in economic growth has an imminent impact on freight rates for this sector. Without this driving demand it is hard for this segment to see the sharp rise in freight rates and secondhand prices that many had hoped we would reach within this year. Nevertheless it’s not all black. Baosteel sees a 1-2 pct increase in Chinese steel production this year. The year-to-date increase in output of 7% shows a promise for improved markets in the final quarter, while at the same time it would take a substantial slow-down in output in the second-half for there to be a year-on-year drop in Chinese steel output", Lazaridis said.
With all the above in mind a few questions arise, like for instance, where is the basis for all this business being reported in the Capesize market? Is there a sense that previous bullish sentiment for this size group is leading new investment without there being a real demand for further fleet growth? Could this lead to further dragging out of sub-performing markets?
According to Lazaridis' viewpoint, "over the past couple of months we have seen the majority of trading sessions being reported at average freight figures bellow what is expected for most owners to cover OPEX. Even on some of the more positive trading days, TCE increases are temporary and usually attributed to momentary decreases in bunker costs as well as slow steaming throughout the fleet which helps increase what little extra earnings owners can squeeze out of the current market rates. The counter argument to this can be found in part in the wisdom of old. Through most shipping cycles owners have usually taken a long-term position hoping to make high gains through the cycle rather than only looking to act during periods where the market is on the rise. If they waited for the later we would not have any ship owners left. This may explain activity in the secondhand market however things are very different when it comes to newbuildings. Capesize newbuilding designs have not had the same overhaul in performance that we have seen in other size segments. So why are owner’s risking of drowning the market with further ordering when there are plenty of well-priced secondhand units available. It seems to be yet again the case of easier financing, respectively lower prices, easi-er payment terms and forward delivery that have the upside of even gaining in value before you have made full payment. As promising as all these sound to a potential buyer, a word of caution to the brave, “as you sow, so shall you reap”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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