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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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