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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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