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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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