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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Wednesday, 10 February 10
ANGLO AMERICAN TIPS COAL PRICE RISE AFTER RAIN, AUSTRALIAN SAYS
Anglo American Plc expects coking coal contract prices to rise after weeks of heavy rain in Queensland state cut output by as much as 10 million met ...
Wednesday, 10 February 10
KANGAROO RESOURCES COMMENCES MINING AT MAMAHAK COKING COAL PROJECT
International coal producer Kangaroo Resources has kicked off mining at its second Indonesian coal operation, the Mamahak Coking Coal Project in Eas ...
Wednesday, 10 February 10
CHINA DENIES CLIVE PALMER'S COAL DEAL
ONE of China's biggest government-owned companies yesterday repudiated mining billionaire Clive Palmer for overstating what he said was Australia' ...
Tuesday, 09 February 10
INDIANS SAY SEEKING COAL BARGAINS VIA INDEX PRICES
* Indonesian cheaper than S.African - traders
* End-users wait for price falls before tendering
Indian coal traders responsible for the bulk of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 10
EURO COAL-PROMPT SLIDES WITH OIL PRICES
* April S.African cargo trades at $83.50/T FOB, unchanged
* April DES cargo trades at $74.75 a tonne, down $1/T
* Russia's Kuzbassrazrezugol sees ...
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Showing 6011 to 6015 news of total 6871 |
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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