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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Thursday, 11 February 10
THE INDIAN MARKET SOFTENING A BIT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The BSI has gone down for 3 weeks now but it is more a reflection of the Pac market. Activity in the Atl remains solid and rates remain firm ...
Thursday, 11 February 10
SOUTH AFRICA COAL EXPORTS DROP TO INDIA, CHINA
South African coal exports to India from Richards Bay Coal Terminal fell 39% in January from December's levels while shipments to China dropped 55% ...
Thursday, 11 February 10
JSW STEEL IS CLOSE TO ACQUIRING TWO COAL MINES IN THE US
“We are in advanced stages of negotiation and the deal will be completed in a month or two,” a company official told DNA Money on the co ...
Wednesday, 10 February 10
BHP TAKES MARUWAI SALE OFF THE TABLE, MINISTRY SAYS
Australian mining giant BHP Billiton may cancel a plan to sell a stake in its coal mining project in Maruwai, East Kalimantan, an official at the En ...
Wednesday, 10 February 10
JPMORGAN FORECASTS A 5.7% GROWTH IN SEABORNE IRON ORE SHIPMENTS, 3.8% FOR COAL AND GRAIN THIS YEAR
This year volumes of iron ore transportation by sea may grow to 5.7%, coal and grain up 3.8% over numbers in 2009, Ukrrudprom reports citing analyst ...
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Showing 6006 to 6010 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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